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NFL picks, predictions against spread for Week 10: 49ers clip Seahawks, Cowboys sink Vikings, Giants rip Jets

Sporting News — (Vinnie Iyer)

The goal with our Week 10 picks against the spread is to be better than we were last week. With multiple upsets and a rough week of missing some toss-up game picks, it's time to shake it off and rebound with our next set of NFL game predictions.

The good news is there are only 13 games on the schedule in Week 10. The optimist says that's fewer games to get wrong and for us to be laser-focused with our selections of the week.

MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review

Who's winning and who's losing, and by how much? Here's our latest fearless forecast, hoping that fortunes favor the bold.

NFL Week 10 picks, predictions against the spread

  • Game of the Week: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5 1/2)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Seahawks' pass defense is not very good, and the 49ers have their passing offense revved up. Defensively, San Francisco can win the battles up front against Seattle's offensive line, and it should be a bit healthier on the other side to handle a limited pass rush. The 49ers have been a great home team this season, and Jimmy Garoppolo will be up to the task of out-dueling Russell Wilson with better matchups for his weapons.

Pick: 49ers win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Upset of the Week: Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Matthew Stafford was playing at a high level, as the Lions have trusted him to throw the ball everywhere with a high volume again, but now they are turning to backup Jeff Driskel with Stafford not able to play Sunday with his hip and back issues. Mitchell Trubisky keeps turning in poor performances. The Bears will stay in it by feeding rookie running back David Montgomery against a leaky Lions run defense, but eventually, Trubisky will need to let it fly against a shaky pass defense to give his team more points than the Lions manufacture. It won't necessarily be pretty, but Detroit will push Chicago closer to a first-to-worst slide in the division.

Pick: Lions win 20-17.

  • Lock of the Week: Dallas Cowboys (-3) over Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Cowboys are a great home team in big games. The Vikings are a bad road team in big games. Dallas is coming off a short week, but Minnesota might run into the same defensive problems it had in Kansas City, only with a few more offensive limitations around Kirk Cousins. Dak Prescott will succeed stretching the field, and Ezekiel Elliott will help with several chunk runs. Cousins will succumb to the Cowboys' pass rush and coverage in crunch time.

Pick: Cowboys win 31-20 and cover the spread.

  • Baltimore Ravens (-11 1/2) at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Ravens will stick with their usual run-heavy game plan with Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson with little resistance from the Bengals' league-worst run defense. The Bengals are turning to Ryan Finley at quarterback against a team with a savvy and deep veteran secondary. There is no good reason to think Cincinnati will come close to sniffing its first victory despite its coming off a bye and playing at home.

Pick: Ravens win 27-10 and cover the spread.

  • Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2 1/2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

One might think it's crazy for the 2-6 Browns to be favorites over the 6-2 Bills in the Battle of Lake Erie. But Buffalo has been inflated by bad opponents, and Cleveland been burned mostly by good opponents. At home, there's a lot of pride and face-saving on the line for the Browns, and the key overcorrection will be turning this game over to Nick Chubb and the defense. Josh Allen will actually get outplayed by Baker Mayfield here.

Pick: Browns win 23-20 and cover the spread.

  • Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13 1/2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Falcons will come out of the bye at 1-7 while the Saints, also rested but at 7-1, will continue their march toward NFC title redemption. Atlanta will be a bit healthier and will want to play hard for coach Dan Quinn, whom the players will do their best to save. New Orleans is a hated rival, and that should rev things up here with the big spread. The Saints will still win comfortably with Drew Brees and the defense at full strength, but the margin will be a little less than 13 1/2.

Pick: Saints win 31-20 but fail to cover the spread.

  • New York Giants (-1 1/2) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

This technically is a home-field game for both teams, and the Giants have a lot more optimism and upside with Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Pat Shurmur than the Jets have with Sam Darnold, Le'Veon Bell and Adam Gase. One New York will pound the other with a heavy dose of Barkley, also showing that Jones, while ripping a bad secondary, is looking better than Darnold. This might end up being the end of the line for Gase and Gregg Williams should it become another disaster. 

Pick: Giants win 24-17 and cover the spread.

  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chiefs should get Patrick Mahomes back for this one. The Titans' defense is hurting without Malcolm Butler and maybe Jurrell Casey again. They also don't cover inside receivers or tight ends well, so hello Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce when the Chiefs are stretching the field. Derrick Henry's running can keep Tennessee in the game for a while, and Ryan Tannehill will be a gamer again, but Kansas City just has too much for Music City.

Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.

  • Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Cardinals are entering this game with a lot of offensive confidence with Kyler Murray and current coach Kliff Kingsbury against their former beloved coach Bruce Arians. The Bucs are feeling good, too, with Jameis Winston starting to get into a groove under Arians. This should be a fun, high-scoring game with a lot of big pass plays and high tempo. Tampa Bay has the better run defense and the better receivers overall to win a shootout.

Pick: Buccaneers win 34-31 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-11 1/2)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Colts lost a tough, close game against the Steelers, and the Dolphins blew a comfortable lead against the Steelers before getting their first win vs. the Jets in Week 9. Indianapolis will need to take it easy with Jacoby Brissett and his knee, so this could be more a lot more of Brian Hoyer in game where the Colts have superior talent everywhere else on the field, especially defensively.

Pick: Colts win 23-10 and cover the spread.

  • Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Rams are coming off a bye and letting Aaron Donald loose on his old college stomping grounds against a struggling offensive line. Jared Goff will face a tough Steelers pass rush, and it won't be easy offensively without Brandin Cooks. But the Rams will use Donald and Jalen Ramsey to take care of business in a low-scoring game.

Pick: Rams win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Panthers will stay in his game with plenty of Christian McCaffrey, as the Packers can't stop backs as runners or receivers. Carolina has good coverage, too, and Green Bay's wideouts have struggled away from Davante Adams. In the end, though, Aaron Rodgers will save his team from another upset at Lambeau Field with clutch play in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Packers win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Game of the Midweek: Los Angeles Chargers (-1 1/2) at Oakland Raiders

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video

One of these hot teams will use this game to continue a march back to AFC wild-card contention. The Raiders are home underdogs, but they have the best matchup in their favor with terrific rookie feature back Josh Jacobs against the Chargers' reeling run defense. LA will answer with big plays in the passing game from Philip Rivers in its new, more dynamic offense, but Oakland will finish a few more drives to take its latest near-last home game.

Pick: Raiders win 27-20 and cover the spread. Result: Raiders won 26-24 and covered the spread.

Stats of the Week:
Week 9 record straight up: 7-7
Week 9 record against the spread: 5-8
Season record straight up: 91-43
Season record against the spread: 73-56
Upsets of the Week: 5-4
Locks of the Week: 4-5